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2026 Q4 · Version 1 · Published October 12, 2026 · Research by Modern Mustard Seed

The Small Business AI Readiness Index

When a customer asks ChatGPT, Claude or Google for a plumber, a dentist or a bakery, can the assistant find the business, read it and trust it? I wanted a number instead of a hunch, so I measured 2,000 small business websites drawn at random from OpenStreetMap across all 50 states and DC, with the same checks we publish as free connectors for Claude.

A small shop lit up in a town, under a magnifying glass and a speech bubble
58.5Average Index score out of 100, 95% CI 57.4 to 59.7
11.3%enforce DMARC on their email domain
24.7%have valid LocalBusiness markup
47%of rated websites are hard or locked to move

Headline findings

What 2,000 sites told us

  1. 58.5

    The average small business website scores 58.5 out of 100.

    Each site is scored on eight pass or fail checks that decide whether a customer asking an AI assistant can find it, read it and trust it. Most sites pass the basics: HTTPS, open to AI agents, a phone and a way to get in touch. The same few checks pull the average down.

    95% CI 57.4 to 59.7 · base: 1,830 sites with at least 5 of the 8 checks measurable

  2. 11.3%

    Only 11.3% enforce DMARC on their email domain.

    DMARC at quarantine or reject is the setting that stops a stranger sending an invoice in the business name. It is the weakest of the eight checks. Another 21.5% publish DMARC but only monitor.

    95% CI 9.9 to 12.8 · base: 1,969 sites on their own domain

  3. 24.7%

    Only 24.7% carry valid LocalBusiness markup.

    LocalBusiness structured data tells a machine the name, address, hours and phone without guessing. 32% have some; the difference is markup that fails validation.

    95% CI 22.5 to 27.1 · base: 1,512 sites whose homepage loaded

  4. 47%

    47% of websites sit on a platform that is hard or locked to move.

    Where we could rate the website platform, nearly half would be hard to leave with the site intact. Domains look well kept, with 92.7% carrying a transfer lock. The lock-in sits in the website layer.

    95% CI 43.9 to 50.2 · base: 1,065 sites whose homepage loaded and whose platform was rated

  5. 1.3%

    Access is not the gap: 1.3% block an AI search agent.

    Almost every small business lets ChatGPT, Claude and Perplexity read the homepage. What those agents find when they arrive is the problem.

    95% CI 0.8 to 1.9 · base: 1,740 sites with a readable robots.txt answer

  6. 17%

    17% of listed websites did not load at all.

    DNS failures, refused connections, timeouts, TLS failures and error pages. A customer, or an AI assistant sent on their behalf, meets the same dead end.

    95% CI 15.2 to 18.8 · base: 1,830 sites whose robots.txt let us read the homepage and that did not refuse automated readers

The Index measures what a business controls on its own site, its email domain and its registration. It does not measure how often any AI product names a business, and it makes no claim about placement.

The Index in one view

Eight checks, one number

Each site earns a point for each of eight checks that apply to it, and its score is the share passed, out of 100. The Index is the average of those scores with national weights. The weakest link nationally is DMARC enforced, passed by 11.3% of the sites it applies to.

Loads on valid HTTPS79.4%
Open to AI search agents96.9%
Valid LocalBusiness markup20.5%
Phone on the homepage60.4%
A way to book or get in touch66.6%
SPF published58.3%
DMARC enforced11.3%
Domain not expiring within 60 days90.8%
Bars show the national weighted share; the thin line is the 95% confidence interval. Scale 0 to 100%.

Who may read the site

AI agents at the door

1.3% of sites with a readable robots.txt block at least one AI search or AI assistant agent, and 0.9% block every one we checked. 1.9% opt out of at least one training crawler, which OpenAI, Google and Apple document as separate from their search products.

GPTBot (OpenAI, training)1.7%
ClaudeBot (Anthropic, training)1.5%
Google-Extended (Gemini training)1.3%
OAI-SearchBot (ChatGPT search)1%
ChatGPT-User (on request)1.1%
Claude-SearchBot (Claude search)1.1%
Claude-User (on request)1%
PerplexityBot (Perplexity search)1.1%
Googlebot (Google Search)0.9%
Bars show the national weighted share; the thin line is the 95% confidence interval. Scale 0 to 10%.

Can a machine and a customer tell who you are

Structured data and contact paths

Any JSON-LD on the homepage63%
LocalBusiness markup, zero errors24.7%
/llms.txt present27.1%
Phone number on the homepage72.7%
Tap-to-call link48.4%
Contact form, email or contact page72.3%
Booking, ordering or quote path37.3%
Bars show the national weighted share; the thin line is the 95% confidence interval. Scale 0 to 80%.

Trust: inboxes, browsers and registries

The quiet gaps

SPF published58.3%
DMARC published32.9%
DMARC enforced (quarantine or reject)11.3%
DKIM at a common selector (floor)31%
Certificate untrusted or near expiry4.8%
Domain expiring within 60 days9.2%
Runs on a hosted builder or commerce platform38.9%
Website layer hard or locked to move47%
Bars show the national weighted share; the thin line is the 95% confidence interval. Scale 0 to 70%.

By trade

Readiness by trade

TradeSitesIndex scoreBlocks an AI search agentValid LocalBusinessBooking pathDMARC enforced
Health, dental and veterinary1766662 to 691%0 to 434%26 to 4250%42 to 5813%9 to 19
Professional services2166360 to 672%1 to 514%9 to 2021%16 to 2824%19 to 30
Trades and home services1386157 to 660%0 to 328%20 to 3731%23 to 4017%11 to 24
Lodging, fitness and other services1545853 to 624%2 to 923%16 to 3138%30 to 4812%8 to 19
Retail shops2665754 to 602%1 to 520%15 to 2613%9 to 189%6 to 13
Food and drink6925755 to 591%0 to 227%24 to 3150%46 to 547%6 to 9
Beauty and personal care985549 to 601%0 to 624%16 to 3551%40 to 625%2 to 12
Auto and vehicle services905347 to 590%0 to 530%20 to 4214%7 to 2511%6 to 20

By state

Readiness by state

State samples are small, so states are listed alphabetically, not ranked. Read the interval under each figure.

StateSitesIndex scoreBlocks an AI search agentValid LocalBusinessDMARC enforced
Alabama206250 to 730%0 to 1635%17 to 599%2 to 27
Alaska145643 to 700%0 to 24n under 1013%4 to 36
Arizona326661 to 710%0 to 1013%5 to 2915%6 to 30
Arkansas195742 to 710%0 to 1827%11 to 5211%3 to 31
California1565955 to 620%0 to 328%21 to 3613%9 to 20
Colorado536458 to 692%0 to 1026%16 to 4020%12 to 32
Connecticut235543 to 680%0 to 1624%10 to 4715%6 to 34
Delaware104932 to 670%0 to 23n under 100%0 to 19
District of Columbia195442 to 670%0 to 1827%11 to 5214%5 to 33
Florida655953 to 653%1 to 1230%19 to 4418%11 to 29
Georgia406254 to 710%0 to 929%17 to 4616%8 to 29
Hawaii195544 to 650%0 to 1831%14 to 565%1 to 24
Idaho186352 to 740%0 to 1827%11 to 525%1 to 24
Illinois656155 to 660%0 to 620%11 to 3215%8 to 26
Indiana275745 to 690%0 to 1438%21 to 5910%4 to 26
Iowa245845 to 710%0 to 1433%16 to 5612%4 to 29
Kansas245139 to 630%0 to 1824%10 to 4712%4 to 30
Kentucky223421 to 470%0 to 239%2 to 385%1 to 23
Louisiana226048 to 735%1 to 2233%16 to 5613%4 to 31
Maine186049 to 710%0 to 1620%7 to 4518%7 to 39
Maryland456053 to 670%0 to 818%9 to 3326%16 to 40
Massachusetts415446 to 632%0 to 1326%14 to 434%1 to 14
Michigan515851 to 650%0 to 736%23 to 519%4 to 20
Minnesota406459 to 695%1 to 1714%6 to 285%1 to 16
Mississippi147056 to 840%0 to 2039%18 to 6519%7 to 43
Missouri316356 to 710%0 to 1129%15 to 4712%5 to 27
Montana176356 to 710%0 to 1813%4 to 3624%10 to 47
Nebraska196152 to 700%0 to 1829%13 to 535%1 to 24
Nevada215546 to 650%0 to 1820%7 to 4514%5 to 33
New Hampshire254936 to 620%0 to 1624%10 to 477%2 to 23
New Jersey395647 to 653%1 to 1640%25 to 585%1 to 17
New Mexico205440 to 686%1 to 2825%10 to 5020%8 to 42
New York1066157 to 653%1 to 823%15 to 329%5 to 16
North Carolina505650 to 620%0 to 822%12 to 378%3 to 19
North Dakota105031 to 690%0 to 26n under 1029%12 to 55
Ohio485447 to 620%0 to 920%10 to 3614%7 to 26
Oklahoma206554 to 770%0 to 1722%9 to 4514%5 to 35
Oregon635750 to 634%1 to 1225%15 to 3810%5 to 20
Pennsylvania676055 to 662%0 to 827%17 to 394%1 to 11
Rhode Island155239 to 650%0 to 2317%5 to 456%1 to 28
South Carolina345748 to 660%0 to 1218%8 to 3614%6 to 29
South Dakota166755 to 790%0 to 2033%15 to 5825%10 to 50
Tennessee255748 to 664%1 to 1915%5 to 367%2 to 22
Texas825751 to 620%0 to 523%14 to 345%2 to 11
Utah296255 to 700%0 to 1219%8 to 3713%5 to 29
Vermont185644 to 680%0 to 1840%20 to 645%1 to 25
Virginia606053 to 664%1 to 1322%13 to 358%4 to 18
Washington605549 to 612%0 to 923%13 to 379%4 to 18
West Virginia156251 to 730%0 to 2221%8 to 487%1 to 32
Wisconsin436255 to 682%0 to 1226%15 to 4218%10 to 32
Wyoming165236 to 680%0 to 2427%10 to 5713%4 to 36

Methodology

How I measured it

Population and frame

Independent US small businesses with a website. I read every OpenStreetMap shop, craft and office feature, plus selected amenity, healthcare, leisure and tourism features, in the 50 states and DC that list a website (OpenStreetMap snapshot 2026-10-12): 642,707 features. Out came institutions and government offices, anything tagged with a brand (chains), listings whose website is a social or directory page, private addresses, and any domain listed on three or more features (multi-location). The frame holds 251,025 small business websites. OpenStreetMap was chosen because its license allows this use; commercial directories forbid it.

Sample

2,000 sites, stratified by state with a floor of 12 per state and the rest in proportion to each state's frame, spread across eight trades by a seeded systematic draw (seed 4060752512). Every site carries the design weight of its state, and national and trade estimates are weighted back to the frame.

Measurement

The engines of four of our connectors for Claude (Site Check, AI Search Kit, Domain Health and Own It, engine commit 4c3515ef3e99d83571d2cdc7ed535f93694281c4) read each site's robots.txt, homepage and /llms.txt, its public DNS, one TLS handshake and its registry record. robots.txt is read first and obeyed for our crawler, MMSReadinessIndex. One fetch per resource, no forms submitted, no logins, no inner pages.

Outcomes

All 2,000 sampled sites were measured. 1,512 homepages loaded, 318 did not, 134 refused automated readers and 36 excluded our crawler in robots.txt. Every metric names its own base in the CSV, and a check that could not be measured is never counted as a failure.

Estimates

Shares are weighted proportions with 95% Wilson intervals on the effective sample size. The Index score is a weighted mean with a linearised interval. No estimate is published for a group under 10 sites, and groups under 30 are flagged in the CSV.

Limits

Homepage only, so phone, booking and schema on inner pages are not seen and those shares are floors. DKIM is a floor. OpenStreetMap covers cities better than contractors who work from a truck, and version 1 is not weighted to Census counts. One read per site: a site down that minute counts as not loading.

The full method, the eight-check definition and every metric's denominator are in the PDF report and the CSV.

Privacy

Aggregates only. No business is named.

No business name, domain, URL or per-site score appears on this page, in the CSV or in the report, and the publishing job fails if any sampled domain shows up in public output. Nobody was contacted because of this study.

Downloads and license

Take the data

Business listings © OpenStreetMap contributors. The aggregates are a derived database of OpenStreetMap and are released under the Open Database License 1.0: use them, share them and build on them with attribution, and keep derived databases open.

Cite this

Quote it, link it

Please cite the Index and link this page, so readers can check every number against its interval and base.

Modern Mustard Seed. (2026). Small Business AI Readiness Index, 2026 Q4 (Version 1) [Data set]. Published October 12, 2026. https://modernmustardseed.com/readiness-index
@misc{mms_readiness_index_2026q4,
  author    = {{Modern Mustard Seed}},
  title     = {Small Business AI Readiness Index, 2026 Q4},
  version   = {1},
  year      = {2026},
  month     = oct,
  note      = {Aggregate data under the Open Database License 1.0. Business listings (c) OpenStreetMap contributors},
  url       = {https://modernmustardseed.com/readiness-index}
}

Press

Questions about the numbers?

I answer press questions myself. Email sarah@modernmustardseed.com for a cut of the data by trade or state, the charts at full size, or the method behind any figure.

Sarah Scarano, founder, Modern Mustard Seed

Your own business

Run the same checks

Every check in the Index comes from a free connector anyone can add to Claude. Ask it whether your email can be faked, whether AI search can read your site, or who controls your domain, and get the fix with the answer.

Claude is a product of Anthropic. Modern Mustard Seed is an independent studio and is not affiliated with or endorsed by Anthropic.